When we analyze data tables by state, it becomes obvious that education spending helps lower dropout rates, but it also shows that collective bargaining is also very important. I didn't expect to find this correlation, but I was surprised by how strong the results actually are when comparing states that have similar poverty levels and median household incomes.
I'm doing this as a follow up to my quick and dirty look into education spending levels I posted earlier. In that post I looked at SAT scores.
Poverty levels are well known to influence dropout levels and testing scores. As the table shows, wealthier states definitely trend toward lower dropout rates. That is why I sorted the table based on this value. Comparing states with the same basic poverty levels and median household incomes helped order the states in a meaningful way when reviewing how dropout rates and education funding levels are related.
The following columns were included in my analysis:
* State: Name of State
* Below Poverty %: This is the percentage of the population under the poverty level.
* Spending Per Student: This is the amount spent per student for public education.
* Household Income:This is the median household income.
* Population Density: This is the number of people per square mile.
* % Graduated: This is the percentage of students that graduate.
* Collective Bargaining?: States without collective bargaining rights are flagged.
* Right To Strike?: States that do not allow teachers to strike are flagged.
I marked data items I thought were interesting. If I thought a value possibly hurt the state's graduation rates I marked it in red. If I thought it possibly helped the state's graduation rates I marked it in green. I marked these high and low values based on noticeable trends, though the rules used should not be considered a formula, only my observations.
I included the population density (number of people per square mile) column specifically for states like Alaska, Wyoming, Rhode Island and New Jersey. If you sort by population density the costs of education are high at both extremes, so I was left to assume those states need higher rates due to issues with population density. Thinking about it, this just makes sense. Dropout rates were also higher in the lowest density states. This explains states like Alaska, where the dropout rate is worse than other otherwise similar states. There's plenty of trend information even without this column, but it helps pinpoint a few exceptions.
To look at this table, focus in the "% Graduate" column, then look at that row's values versus other states nearby or with similar values. Look for general trends. Expect a small amount of deviation based on unaccounted for factors, but you should still make some rather interesting observations.
I posted a few of my own observations below.
| State |
Below Poverty |
Spending Per
Student |
Household
Income |
Population
Density |
%
Graduate |
Collective
Barganing? |
Right To
Strike? |
| New Hampshire |
7.1 |
$11,169 |
$64,131 |
147.0 |
83.4 |
|
No |
| Connecticut |
7.9 |
$11,885 |
$64,851 |
738.1 |
82.2 |
|
No |
| Hawaii |
8.0 |
$10,426 |
$55,649 |
211.8 |
76.0 |
|
|
| Maryland |
8.3 |
$10,088 |
$64,186 |
594.8 |
80.4 |
|
|
| New Jersey |
8.6 |
$13,238 |
$64,777 |
1196.0 |
84.6 |
|
|
| Wyoming |
8.7 |
$14,126 |
$52,470 |
5.8 |
76.0 |
|
|
| Alaska |
8.9 |
$12,090 |
$61,604 |
1.2 |
69.1 |
|
|
| Minnesota |
9.5 |
$9,476 |
$56,090 |
66.6 |
86.4 |
|
|
| Utah |
9.7 |
$5,964 |
$58,491 |
33.6 |
74.3 |
|
|
| Virginia |
9.9 |
$8,725 |
$60,501 |
202.6 |
77.0 |
No |
No |
| Massachusetts |
9.9 |
$11,545 |
$59,373 |
839.4 |
81.5 |
|
No |
| Vermont |
10.1 |
$15,139 |
$52,318 |
67.9 |
89.3 |
|
No |
| Delaware |
10.5 |
$11,426 |
$52,114 |
460.8 |
72.1 |
|
No |
| Nevada |
10.7 |
$7,213 |
$51,434 |
24.6 |
51.3 |
|
No |
| Wisconsin |
10.8 |
$10,529 |
$51,237 |
105.0 |
89.6 |
|
|
| Iowa |
11.0 |
$9,977 |
$50,721 |
54.5 |
86.4 |
|
No |
| Nebraska |
11.2 |
$11,023 |
$49,595 |
23.8 |
83.8 |
|
No |
| Kansas |
11.2 |
$10,216 |
$44,717 |
34.9 |
79.1 |
|
No |
| Washington |
11.4 |
$7,688 |
$60,392 |
101.2 |
71.9 |
|
No |
| Pennsylvania |
11.6 |
$11,252 |
$48,172 |
283.9 |
82.7 |
|
|
| Illinois |
11.9 |
$8,829 |
$52,870 |
231.1 |
80.4 |
|
|
| Maine |
12.0 |
$12,985 |
$47,502 |
43.1 |
79.1 |
|
No |
| Colorado |
12.0 |
$8,514 |
$55,930 |
48.5 |
75.4 |
|
|
| Rhode Island |
12.0 |
$12,478 |
$51,634 |
1018.0 |
76.4 |
|
No |
| North Dakota |
12.1 |
$10,885 |
$50,075 |
9.7 |
83.8 |
|
No |
| Idaho |
12.1 |
$8,034 |
$46,778 |
19.0 |
80.1 |
|
|
| Florida |
12.1 |
$8,437 |
$45,631 |
350.6 |
66.9 |
|
|
| Indiana |
12.3 |
$10,053 |
$44,305 |
181.0 |
74.1 |
|
No |
| California |
12.4 |
$7,571 |
$56,134 |
239.1 |
71.2 |
|
|
| Oregon |
12.9 |
$9,460 |
$49,098 |
39.9 |
76.7 |
|
|
| South Dakota |
13.0 |
$10,223 |
$45,826 |
10.7 |
78.0 |
|
No |
| Missouri |
13.0 |
$9,146 |
$48,769 |
87.1 |
82.4 |
|
No |
| Ohio |
13.1 |
$10,119 |
$45,879 |
282.3 |
79.0 |
|
No |
| New York |
13.7 |
$13,064 |
$50,216 |
411.2 |
70.8 |
|
No |
| Michigan |
14.0 |
$9,809 |
$45,994 |
174.8 |
76.3 |
|
No |
| Montana |
14.1 |
$11,660 |
$40,437 |
6.8 |
82.0 |
|
|
| Arizona |
14.2 |
$7,112 |
$45,739 |
56.3 |
70.7 |
|
|
| Georgia |
14.3 |
$8,754 |
$43,340 |
168.4 |
65.4 |
No |
No |
| North Carolina |
14.3 |
$7,835 |
$41,906 |
196.1 |
72.8 |
No |
No |
| South Carolina |
15.0 |
$9,008 |
$41,101 |
153.9 |
58.9 |
No |
No |
| Oklahoma |
15.9 |
$8,255 |
$45,878 |
54.7 |
78.0 |
|
No |
| Tennessee |
15.9 |
$7,620 |
$40,517 |
153.9 |
74.9 |
|
No |
| Texas |
16.3 |
$7,561 |
$47,475 |
96.3 |
73.1 |
No |
No |
| West Virginia |
16.9 |
$11,150 |
$40,490 |
77.1 |
77.3 |
|
|
| Alabama |
16.9 |
$8,769 |
$39,980 |
94.4 |
69.0 |
|
|
| Kentucky |
17.3 |
$8,681 |
$42,664 |
109.9 |
74.4 |
|
|
| Arkansas |
17.9 |
$9,756 |
$36,538 |
56.0 |
76.4 |
|
|
| New Mexico |
18.1 |
$9,525 |
$43,542 |
17.0 |
66.8 |
|
|
| Louisiana |
18.6 |
$9,787 |
$45,433 |
104.9 |
63.5 |
|
|
| Mississippi |
20.6 |
$8,635 |
$35,078 |
63.2 |
63.9 |
|
No |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interesting observations:
Look at median incomes in the $50,000 - $59,999 range: Iowa, Minnesota, Utah, and Vermont. All have low poverty levels and are high in the list, yet Utah has a very high dropout rate for a state with such low poverty levels. They spend the least on education in the country.
Look at Virginia. Tenth from the top, with less than 10% poverty rate and a very high median household income. Yet Virginia has a very high dropout rate compared to other similar states. It is also the only wealthy state without collective bargaining rights.
In a previous post, Virginia also stood out because it had the highest SAT scores of all the states without collective bargaining rights. Low poverty levels likely help explain this. Keep in mind, they were still only ranked as #33 in the country for their SAT scores, so for the wealth in the state they are well below other similar states.
Of the states with the highest poverty levels, the ones with no collective bargaining also have higher dropout rates than similar states. Much worse than they should be for their education spending levels. Compare Georgia and South Carolina to any state with higher poverty levels. They score much worse than many states spending the same or less money. It looks like the simple lack of teacher representation has a big impact on the school system.
Look only at states with median household incomes of $60,000 and above. As a general trend, these low poverty states also have lower dropout rates, but there's more to it. States that spend more on education in that group have the lowest dropout rates. A more than 10% difference.
For states with a median income below $45,000 you'll see a similar trend. Montana and West Virginia are good examples of states that spend more and have lower dropout rates.
Over half of states have made it illegal for teachers to strike. It seems the inability to strike does not matter as much as having collective bargaining rights in general. All states without collective bargaining had greater dropout rates than similar states. I suspect it must just help to have a two way conversation between the bean counters and the people doing the work.
Note how Washington state has fairly low poverty levels, yet their dropout rate is much higher than similar states even when the household incomes for those states is much lower. The only telling item is that they spend much less per student than similar states.
Look at California. Poverty levels similar to many other states, and the lowest spending on education, and a high dropout rate.
New York, Delaware and Hawaii are states that need more research to see what's going on there. While they have reasonably high spending per student, their dropout rates, when compared to similar states, are higher than would be expected. Each state does have certain obvious features that might explain why they are outliers, but further research would be useful. Hawaii is, of course, a set of islands, so this likely impacts their school system differently than other states. New York is a distinct state in that it contains the largest single city in the country, with over twice as many people as the next closest city. This likely creates some very densely populated low income areas. I know that in my home state, Michigan, poor school districts are funded much lower than wealthy districts, so is it possible New York's population levels amplify this? I do have one fact on Delaware: the population of Delaware is 45th in the nation, but 6th in population density, with more than 60% of the population in one county. So, it's very possible that population density comes into play here as well. Perhaps population density issues are something worth studying if we really want to understand how to structure education funding for better results instead of as a simple-minded political talking-point.
Once again, I thought it possible that higher spending might create better schools, and thus a lower dropout rate, but I didn't expect to observe that states without collective bargaining had higher drop out rates even without lower costs. That was quite interesting.
Data was the most recent I could locate: 2008 / 2009.